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A transfer-function model developed from an extensive surface-pollen data set in northern China and its potential for palaeoclimate reconstructions

College of Resources and Environment, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, 050016, PR China

Qinghai Xu

College of Resources and Environment, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, 050016, PR China, xuqinghai{at}mail.hebtu.edu.cn

Jinsong Liu

College of Resources and Environment, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang, 050016, PR China

Xiaolan Yang

Hebei Institute of Geography, Shijiazhuang, 050011, PR China

Takeshi Nakagawa

Department of Geography, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne NE17RU, UK

A total of 237 surface soil pollen samples were collected from less disturbed zonal communities, and a new surface pollen data set has been established in northern China. Pollen—climate parameter transfer functions using weighted-averaging regression and calibration partial least squares (WA-PLS) model as a tool to reconstruct past climate changes from pollen data, were tested with this new surface pollen data set. The results of cross-validation showed that the method worked very well with precipitation (R = 0.94, R ² _jack = 0.89, RMSEP_jack = 69 mm, the safe dynamic range of the reconstruction was 40 mm~800 mm) and worked well with temperature (T _ann: R = 0.84, R ² _jack = 0.71, RMSEP_jack = 2.0°C, the safe dynamic range of the reconstruction was –4°C~13°C; MT_wa: R = 0.79, R ² _jack = 0.63, RMSEP_jack = 2.5°C, and the safe dynamic range of the reconstruction was 8°C~26°C), indicating that the surface pollen data set and WA-PLS reconstruction technique in this paper have strong potential for palaeoclimatic reconstruction.

Key Words: Surface pollen data set • northern China • transfer functions • WA-PLS models • cross-validation • palaeoclimate reconstruction.

The Holocene, Vol. 17, No. 7, 897-905 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/0959683607082404


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