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Century scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest

Henri D. Grissino Mayer

Department of Physics, Astronomy and Geosciences, Valdosta State University,Valdosta, Georgia 31698-0055, USA

Thomas W. Swetnam

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona,Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA

Interannual time-scale associations between fire occurrence anddrought indices, the Southern Oscillation, and other synopticpatterns demonstrate that large-scale, long term atmospheric featuresare precursors to regional fire activity. However, our knowledge offire-climate relations over longer (century) timescales is fragmentary because of the rarity of comparable climate and fire time-series with sufficient resolution, length and regional extent. In this study, we develop reconstructions of wildfire occurrence from tree-ring data collected from northwestern New Mexico to compare with a millennium-length dendroclimatic reconstruction of precipitation. Reconstructions of both wildfires and climate show simultaneous changes since AD 1700 that indicate climate forcing of wildfire regimes on interannual to century timescales. Following a centuries-long dry period with high fire frequency (c. AD 1400-1790), annual precipitation increased, fire frequency decreased, and the season of fire shifted from predominantly midsummer to late spring. We hypothesize that these shifts in fire regimes reflect long-term changes in rainfall patternsassociated with changes in synoptic-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and the Southern Oscillation. Our evidence supports century-scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest, providing a useful analogue of future wildfire regimes expected uinder changing global climate conditions.

Key Words: Dendrochronology • tree-rings • fire history • climatic change • El Malpais National Monument • Southwestern USA

The Holocene, Vol. 10, No. 2, 213-220 (2000)
DOI: 10.1191/095968300668451235
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